2026年6月8日，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的一份匿名备案文件悄然出现在公众视野中——OpenAI已秘密提交了首次公开募股（IPO）的S-1草案。这份文件的出现并非偶然泄露，而是根据2012年通过的《 JOBS法案》，非上市科技企业可以在正式公布上市计划前120天内秘密提交S-1文件。
On June 8, 2026, an anonymous SEC filing appeared in public view — OpenAI had secretly submitted its S-1 draft for an initial public offering. This wasn't a leak but rather a provision under the 2012 JOBS Act, which allows private technology companies to secretly file S-1 documents up to 120 days before publicly announcing their IPO plans.
从"非营利"到"上市"的轨迹
The Trajectory from Non-Profit to Public Company
OpenAI的故事始于2015年，由萨姆·奥特曼（Sam Altman）和格雷格·布罗克曼（Greg Brockman）等人创立，初衷是作为一家非营利组织推动人工智能的"安全、负责任"发展。然而，2019年OpenAI引入了盈利子公司OpenAI Global LLC，为商业化埋下了伏笔。到了2023年，ChatGPT的爆火让OpenAI成为全球最受关注的科技公司，也使其对资本的需求急剧膨胀。
OpenAI's story began in 2015, founded by Sam Altman and Greg Brockman as a non-profit organization to promote "safe and responsible" AI advancement. However, in 2019 OpenAI introduced a for-profit subsidiary, OpenAI Global LLC, laying the groundwork for commercialization. By 2023, ChatGPT's explosion made OpenAI the world's most watched tech company, and its capital needs grew dramatically.
微软是OpenAI最重要的战略投资者，累计投资已超过300亿美元。这笔巨额投资不仅为ChatGPT提供了算力基础设施，也为OpenAI的IPO提供了隐性背书。市场普遍估计，微软在OpenAI IPO中获得的股份比例将不低于12%。
Microsoft is OpenAI's most important strategic investor, with cumulative investments exceeding $30 billion. This massive investment not only provided computing infrastructure for ChatGPT but also provided implicit endorsement for OpenAI's IPO. The market generally estimates Microsoft will receive no less than 12% of OpenAI's shares in the IPO.
万亿估值：是雄心还是泡沫？
Trillion-Dollar Valuation: Ambition or Bubble?
根据S-1草案中披露的信息，OpenAI预计发行价将在300至350美元之间，融资规模可能达到800亿至1000亿美元。如果发行顺利，OpenAI的估值将超过1.2万亿美元，成为人类历史上市值最高的科技公司。
Based on information disclosed in the S-1 draft, OpenAI expects a share price between $300 and $350, potentially raising $80 billion to $100 billion. If the offering proceeds smoothly, OpenAI's valuation would exceed $1.2 trillion, becoming the most valuable company in human history.
但这一估值并非没有争议。高盛最新报告指出，按照当前收入增速和利润率计算，OpenAI的估值偏高约35%。截至2025年底，OpenAI的年收入约为74亿美元，虽然同比增长超过400%，但距离万亿美元估值所需的合理收入水平仍有差距。高盛分析师写道："OpenAI的叙事令人着迷，但投资者需要面对一个基本问题：这个估值是否有可持续的盈利模型支撑？"
Yet this valuation is not without controversy. Goldman Sachs' latest report notes that based on current revenue growth and margins, OpenAI is valued approximately 35% above fair value. As of the end of 2025, OpenAI's annual revenue was approximately $7.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of over 400%, but still falling short of the revenue levels needed to justify a trillion-dollar valuation.
监管挑战：AI行业上市的首个"样板戏"
Regulatory Hurdles: The First Blueprint for AI Industry Listings
OpenAI的IPO还面临独特的监管挑战。作为一个人工智能公司，其商业模式的核心——大规模训练和部署语言模型——正受到越来越多国家的监管审查。欧盟《人工智能法案》已进入执行阶段，美国国会也在讨论AI安全相关立法。如果OpenAI成为第一家上市的AI巨头，它将在 SEC招股书中披露多少有关其模型安全性的信息？这一问题引发了华尔街和监管机构的广泛关注。
OpenAI's IPO also faces unique regulatory challenges. As an AI company, its core business model — large-scale training and deployment of language models — is subject to increasing regulatory scrutiny worldwide. The EU AI Act is already in enforcement, and the U.S. Congress is debating AI safety legislation. If OpenAI becomes the first listed AI giant, how much information about its model safety will it disclose in the SEC prospectus? This question has drawn widespread attention from Wall Street and regulators.
对于普通投资者而言，OpenAI的IPO既是一个机遇也是一个考验。它将向市场展示AI行业的商业化天花板在哪里，也将在很大程度上决定未来数年资本对AI赛道的态度。这场大戏，才刚刚拉开帷幕。
For retail investors, OpenAI's IPO is both an opportunity and a test. It will demonstrate to the market where the commercialization ceiling of the AI industry lies, and will largely determine capital's attitude toward the AI sector in the coming years. This drama has only just begun.