Anomalous Signals in the Pacific
Since early spring 2026, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have been steadily rising. NOAA monitoring data shows the Nino 3.4 region sea temperature anomaly has climbed from +0.5 degrees Celsius at the beginning of the year to +1.8 degrees Celsius in early June, with the upward trend still accelerating. By WMO standards, when the Nino 3.4 index exceeds +1.5 degrees for three consecutive months, it is classified as a strong El Nino; exceeding +2.0 degrees constitutes a super El Nino.
More concerning is the extremely strong subsurface warm water signal. The warm water layer at 100-300 meters depth in the tropical Pacific is more than twice the thickness of normal years, meaning that even if surface wind patterns show short-term fluctuations, the enormous heat stored in the deep ocean will continue feeding the surface, providing ample energy for further El Nino development. NOAA latest forecast issued in early June has raised the super El Nino probability to 65%.
Historical Lessons from Super El Ninos
There have been only two well-documented super El Nino events in history: 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. The 1997-1998 super El Nino caused approximately 23,000 deaths globally and over $34 billion in economic losses. Indonesia and Australia experienced devastating droughts and wildfires, while South America west coast was hit by torrential rains and flooding. The 2015-2016 event caused fewer casualties but more severe economic damage, estimated at over $60 billion.
If a super El Nino does form in 2026, its impact could be comparable to or even greater than these two events. The reason is that global average temperatures have risen approximately 0.5 degrees over the past 28 years; higher baseline temperatures mean El Nino combined with global warming will produce more extreme climate effects. Additionally, the global population has grown from 5.9 billion in 1997 to 8.2 billion in 2026, exposing significantly more people to climate risks.
Severe Tests for Global Agriculture
Agricultural production is the most directly affected sector during El Nino events. Historical data shows that during super El Nino years, global grain production averages a 3-5% decline, with some affected areas seeing reductions of 20-30%. Southeast Asian and Australian palm oil and sugarcane cultivation will face drought threats; the South Asian monsoon may weaken, affecting wheat and rice production in India and Pakistan; flooding in South America will damage soybean and corn crops in Brazil and Argentina.
Grain markets have already reacted preemptively. Chicago Board of Trade wheat and corn futures rose 12% and 9% respectively in early June, reaching yearly highs. The UN FAO warns that if a super El Nino forms in the second half of the year, the world may face a new round of grain price inflation in early 2027, particularly impacting regions with high food import dependency like Africa and the Middle East.
Energy Markets and Extreme Weather Chain Reactions
El Nino impact on energy markets is equally significant. In Asia, El Nino typically causes drought in Southeast Asia, reducing hydropower output and driving up natural gas and coal demand. During the 2015-2016 super El Nino, Southeast Asian LNG imports increased 18%. In North America, El Nino winters usually bring warmer weather, reducing heating demand but potentially increasing air conditioning use, with overall energy consumption effects being complex.
Renewable energy is also significantly affected. While drought reduces hydropower output, clear hot weather may increase photovoltaic generation. However, extreme heat also reduces solar panel conversion efficiency. For wind energy, El Nino typically alters global wind distribution patterns, with some wind farms seeing 20-30% fluctuations in output. Energy companies need to prepare diversified energy supply contingency plans in advance.
Scientific Monitoring and Preparedness
Facing the possible super El Nino, the global climate monitoring network has entered high alert. The WMO-coordinated Global Observing System uses over 70 satellites, more than 3,000 buoys, and hundreds of observation vessels for round-the-clock monitoring of the tropical Pacific. China Meteorological Administration has also intensified Pacific monitoring, with Fengyun weather satellites providing eight daily global sea temperature observations.
Governments worldwide have begun activating contingency plans. India government has revised its monsoon agricultural plan, increasing promotion of drought-resistant crop varieties. The Australian federal government has allocated A$500 million for drought relief. ASEAN convened an emergency ministerial meeting to discuss regional food security cooperation. Scientists emphasize that while the super El Nino probability is high, exact timing and intensity remain uncertain; the key lies in thorough preparation.